I have raised the question of the future of the Congress, India’s oldest political party, because of its dynastic character and poor leadership. The table set out below presents a clear picture of ups and downs of the Congress party since 1984.
| Year | No. of Seats Won | Year | No. of Seats Won | ||
| Congress | BJP | Congress | BJP | ||
| 1984 | 414 | 2 | 1999 | 114 | 182 |
| (% of votes) | (46.86) | (7.74) | (% of votes) | (28.3) | (23.75) |
| 1989 | 197 | 85 | 2004 | 145 | 138 |
| (% of votes) | (39.53) | (11.36) | (% of votes) | (26.53) | (22.16) |
| 1991 | 244 | 120 | 2009 | 206 | 116 |
| (% of votes) | (36.4) | (20.07) | (% of votes) | (28.55) | (18.8) |
| 1996 | 140 | 161 | 2014 | 44 | 282 |
| (% of votes) | (28.8) | (20.29) | (% of votes) | (19.31) | (31) |
| 1998 | 141 | 182 | 2019 | 52 | 303 |
| (% of votes) | (25.82) | (25.59) | (% of votes) | (19.66) | (37.7) |
| 2024 | 99 | 240 | |||
| (% of votes) | (21.40) | (36.92) | |||
(Compiled from information collected from internet.)
The above table summarises the political journey of two rivals since 1984, when the Congress was 100 years old, and the BJP was just a ‘baby’ (founded on April 6, 1980). In the 1984 general election, the Congress reached the peak of its electoral success since the first general election in 1952, and the BJP had just started its journey. The thumping victory of the Congress in 1984 was due to the sympathy wave and emotions following the assassination of Prime Minister Mrs. Indira Gandhi. Within five years, her son and successor Rajiv Gandhi had frittered away the grand success. Under his leadership the Congress lost the 1989 general election partly because of charges of corruption against him and partly because he lacked qualities of a leader.
Since 1989 the Congress has not been able to get even simple majority. It formed the government in 1991, 2004 and 2009 with the help of other parties. The party lost the 2014 general election because it faced a strong opposition party namely Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) led by a strong charismatic leader, Narendra Modi. Neither Sonia Gandhi nor her son Rahul Gandhi was in the match to him. Same was the case in 2019.
The party’s position improved in 2024 when the number of seats increased from 54 in 2019 to 99 because of several factors in favour of the Congress and against the BJP. Rahul Gandhi targeted the beneficiaries of reservations in government jobs and poor women. He frightened the beneficiaries by repeatedly telling a lie that Modi would change the Constitution to end reservation though Modi had not given any indication like that. On the contrary, at his election rallies he repeatedly said that reservation would continue. Rahul Gandhi told the beneficiaries that their share in government jobs should be increased. He assured the poor women that everyone of them would get ₹ 1 lakh per annum.
The main disadvantage of the BJP was anti-incumbency. During the 10 years of the BJP rule, people found that many of their expectations were not fulfilled. Overconfidence of Modi also went against him. In his election speeches he used to say many things which people did not appreciate. It did not matter to the common people that under Modi’s leadership India’s defence had improved significantly, infrastructure had improved and the country became the fifth largest economy of the world. To a common man what matters more is what he did not get rather than what he got. Muslims’ dislike for the BJP was yet another factor.
Despite better performance in 2024 (compared to 2014 and 2019) the party has no member in Lok Sabha from Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Tripura and Uttarakhand. There is negligible representation (considering the total number of seats from Bihar (3), Chhattisgarh (1), Gujarat (1), Jharkhand (2), Odisha (1), Uttar Pradesh (6 out of 85), and West Bengal (1).
Anyway the moot question is, what is the future of Congress? Will it improve or decline? Will the country become Congress Mukt (free of Congress) as the BJP has been asking people to ensure. Or will it just float as has been seen since 2014?
The basic characteristic of India’s oldest party is that it has become a family -controlled party. Jawaharlal Nehru had laid the foundation of making it a dynastic party. He chose his daughter in the rag on the as the Congress president in 1959, a clear indication that he wanted her to be in the family profession i.e. politics. In the rag on the strength and the dynastic characteristic by allowing her son Sanjay Gandhi to be an extra-constitutional authority during the Emergency (1975-77). She assumed direct control of the party only in 1978 by getting herself elected as the Congress President, a position she held for life. Her son and successor Rajiv Gandhi also held the posts of Prime Minister and Congress President.
After Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination in 1991, the post of Congress president remained outside family for seven years. In 1998 Sonia Gandhi got the then Congress president Sitaram Kesri forcibly thrown out and usurped the post. Since then the party has been totally under the family control. One may say that it is a fully family owned partly. Presently in non-family person is Congress president because Rahul Gandhi refused to take over the responsibility. The outsider is a family nominee and loyalist. For any serious decision in the party, Congress leaders including its president look to Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi.
A family -controlled party has advantage as well as disadvantage. The main advantage is that as long as there is somebody in the family who is considered heir even if he or she is thoroughly incompetent and the party has support of a section of voters, it will survive. The Congress is the best example. Even in 2014 when the party had got just 44 seats, the lowest in its history, more than 10 crore people had voted for it. In 2024, the party got more than 13 crore votes.
(All numbers in crore)
| Year of election | Number of voters | Number of votes cast | Number of votes Congress got |
| 2014 | 83.40 | 55.40 | 10.70 |
| 2024 | 95.00 | 62.50 | 13.19 |
(Compiled from information collected from internet.)
Broadly speaking about 20% of voters who go to polling booths vote for Congress. This is enough for the survival of any party.
There are two disadvantages of such a party. One, if the heir is not a good leader, he or she may not improve the party’s prospects much, especially when it has to face a strong opposition. Two, without heir the party has no future. In the 1950s and 1960s people used to ask ‘what after Nehru’ or ‘who after Nehru’. Today we may ask, what after Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra’ or ‘who after them’? Rahul Gandhi is a bachelor. Priyanka Vadra has two children. Will one of them be heir and get the same loyalty? I doubt about getting the same loyalty. If people do not give the same loyalty, the party may disintegrate.
Anyway, such a time is in distant future. No one can predict future but my own assessment is that Congress will survive for a couple of decades more. Whether it will come back to power again depends not so much on Rahul Gandhi who has proved that he is not a capable leader, but on the position of the main opposition namely BJP. If after Modi – he is unlikely to contest in 2029 – the BJP becomes weak, the Congress may come back to power. In a multi-party system with strong regional parties, it is highly unlikely that in future the Congress will be able to form government on its own strength.
Therefore, wait for many more years to see India Congress Mukt (India without Congress).
Devendra Narain
(This is the last chapter of my book “The Congress Files on stories you might not have heard”. Kindle edition available on Amazon)
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