Future of the Congress

The Future of Congress: A Question of Survival

I have raised the question of the future of Congress, India’s oldest political party, due to its dynastic nature and poor leadership. Below is a table that outlines the Congress party’s fluctuating electoral performance since 1984, juxtaposed with the rise of its rival, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP):

Year	Congress Seats	BJP Seats	Congress Vote %	BJP Vote %
1984	414	2	46.86	7.74
1989	197	85	39.53	11.36
1991	244	120	36.40	20.07
1996	140	161	28.80	20.29
1998	141	182	25.82	25.59
1999	114	182	28.30	23.75
2004	145	138	26.53	22.16
2009	206	116	28.55	18.80
2014	44	282	19.31	31.00
2019	52	303	19.66	37.70
2024	99	240	21.40	36.92

This table highlights the political journey of these two rivals. In 1984, Congress reached its zenith with a landslide victory, largely driven by a sympathy wave following Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s assassination. In contrast, the BJP was still in its infancy, having been formed in 1980. However, Congress’ victory in 1984 was short-lived. Rajiv Gandhi, who succeeded his mother, lost public support within five years due to corruption allegations and a lack of effective leadership, resulting in the party’s defeat in the 1989 general election.

Congress’ Decline Since 1989

Since 1989, Congress has failed to secure a simple majority in the Lok Sabha. The party formed coalition governments in 1991, 2004, and 2009 but never regained its dominant position. The 2014 election marked a historic low for Congress, winning just 44 seats. This trend continued in 2019, with Congress securing only 52 seats, as the BJP, led by the charismatic Narendra Modi, dominated the political landscape. Neither Sonia Gandhi nor Rahul Gandhi could effectively challenge Modi’s popularity or leadership.

A Recovery in 2024

In 2024, Congress saw a modest recovery, increasing its tally to 99 seats. Several factors contributed to this improvement:

1. Targeted Campaigning: Rahul Gandhi focused on beneficiaries of reservations and poor women. He alleged that Modi would amend the Constitution to abolish reservations—a claim denied by Modi—but one that created fear among voters. Rahul also promised to increase quotas and assured every poor woman an annual payment of ₹1 lakh.
2. Anti-Incumbency: After 10 years of BJP rule, public dissatisfaction over unmet expectations worked against the ruling party.
3. Modi’s Overconfidence: Modi’s speeches, while emphasizing national achievements such as improved defense, infrastructure, and economic growth, failed to resonate with voters who prioritized unmet personal aspirations.

Despite this, Congress’ recovery was limited. The party remains absent from several key states, including Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, and Uttarakhand. Its representation in states like Uttar Pradesh (6 seats out of 85), Bihar (3 seats), and Gujarat (1 seat) remains negligible.

Congress as a Family-Controlled Party

Congress’ defining characteristic is its dynastic leadership. Jawaharlal Nehru laid the foundation for this, promoting his daughter, Indira Gandhi, as Congress president in 1959. Indira Gandhi further entrenched the dynastic culture by empowering her son, Sanjay Gandhi, during the Emergency (1975-77) and later consolidating control over the party. After Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination in 1991, the post of Congress president briefly left the family but returned to Sonia Gandhi in 1998.

Today, while an outsider holds the position of Congress president, they are a loyal family nominee, with Sonia and Rahul Gandhi continuing to wield real power. This structure offers advantages and disadvantages:

• Advantages: Family control ensures continuity and loyalty, keeping the party alive even during its weakest phases. For instance, in 2014, Congress won just 44 seats but still garnered over 10 crore votes.
• Disadvantages: Poor leadership within the family limits growth, especially against strong opposition. Moreover, the absence of a clear heir poses existential risks. Questions about the party’s future leadership—after Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra—remain unanswered. If future heirs fail to command loyalty, the party risks disintegration.

Congress’ Core Voter Base

Despite its struggles, Congress maintains a stable voter base. Approximately 20% of voters consistently support the party, as reflected in the data below:

Year	Eligible Voters (crore)	Votes Cast (crore)	Congress Votes (crore)
2014	83.40	55.40	10.70
2024	95.00	62.50	13.19

This base, though insufficient for electoral dominance, ensures the party’s survival.

The Road Ahead

Congress’ future depends more on the BJP’s trajectory than on Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. If the BJP weakens post-Modi—likely after 2029—Congress might find opportunities to regain power, though it will probably require coalition alliances. However, the possibility of Congress forming a government on its own appears remote in India’s multi-party system.

The idea of a “Congress Mukt Bharat” (Congress-free India), as envisioned by the BJP, seems unlikely in the near future. Congress is expected to survive for at least a couple more decades, though its ability to return to power depends on circumstances beyond its control. For now, the party’s prospects remain uncertain, with its dynastic structure both sustaining and constraining its potential.

This revision preserves all important details, maintaining the original’s depth while improving grammatical accuracy and readability. Let me know if you need further adjustments!

 

Therefore, wait for many more years to see India Congress Mukt (India without Congress).

Devendra Narain

(This is the summary of the last chapter of my book “The Congress Files on stories you might not have heard”. Kindle edition available on Amazon)